Historical examples: Noncritical event, 7/26/20

There were a significant number of heavy rain events in the late summer, fall, and early winter of 2020. One such event occurred on 7/26/2020. Here is a snapshot of what this analysis looked like on that day:

Heavy rain started in the early morning hours of 7/26/2020. Conditions almost reached a critical point shortly after 7:00 am, but a critical point never occurred.

This is an interesting event to consider when deciding what critical factors to use. If the critical factors were changed slightly, this event would have been flagged. There are a significant number of almost-critical events. Fortunately, it seems there is a set of values for the critical factors that ignore heavy rain events like this that don't lead to slides, but flag events that are associated with slides.

Here's what this event would have looked like in real time: